@teacher59 Sorry, my argument was that the people registered as sex offenders are not only being watched but they got caught, which for me means they're slightly LESS of a concern than the ones we all know and they've never been caught. They are aware there is a spotlight on them to begin with, but they also didn't manage to get away with their crimes. Until you've been in a situation like I was with a family member, you can't imagine how well people can hide their stuff. You, me, and everyone reading this likely knows someone (a relative, a friend, a coworker) who
would be on the list if they had gotten caught. Whether it's for something against a child, rape, a pornography charge, whatever, but something so serious that it'd shock us that we had no idea.
To me, those are the ones who are a much, much bigger risk. After all, they haven't been caught, they've either gotten away with it or are currently getting away with it, and we all have no idea. And yeah one day it may be your kid or cousin or sister who is hurt by someone like that and you'll spend the rest of your life wondering how that person managed to do whatever-it-was.
I'd say it's way less common for a registered sex offender (and/or a total stranger like your neighbor would be) to commit the same crimes than it is for someone to get caught only to find out it was happening for a long time or theres multiple crimes/victims and it all comes out once they're caught. I may be overly biased here, because I've watched this happen with my own eyes, but you have to remember that every sex offender ever had friends and family (maybe they even had kids) at some point and they still did something terrible. You probably know someone who shouldn't be alone with your kid, and that person is statistically more likely to be around your kid than a neighbor. I've got neighbors I haven't even met and I've been here three years now. The people you know are almost always (statistically speaking) a much bigger risk than a stranger.