@ahcadvocacy Honestly, I think this is not as big a deal as it sounds. We know from page 6 of the Phexxi Fact Sheet[1] that 101 women out of the 1183 in the study (median age = 27.8) became pregnant. That is,
1082 women (or 92%) had sex 3 times a month for 7-months while using Phexxi and avoided pregnancy [2]. That sounds like a pretty strong result to me.
Yet OP is claiming the actual failure rate is 27.5%, because the trial didn’t last for a full year. According to that reasoning, if the study had lasted another 5 months, an additional 225 women would have become pregnant. But that is
more than double the number of pregnancies that were actually observed! It does not make sense, especially given the smaller pool of women (women leave the study after becoming pregnant) and shorter time frame (5-months vs 7-months).
In other words, what OP is claiming is that after 7 months of avoiding pregnancy with Phexxi (0% failure rate), in the next 5 months the failure rate for these women would jump to 21% (225/1082).
Even more simply, it is like saying: "We
know that 101 women got pregnant in the first 7-months, we
think another 225 would have gotten pregnant in the next 5".
This is highly speculative, to say the least, and in my view, not very realistic at all.
Also, there is nothing special about the Pearl Index. It is not “the” failure rate, it is a “a"
hypothetical failure rate based on a number of questionable assumptions, which is why it has its fair share of criticisms [3], for example:
"[The Pearl Index] does not serve as an estimator of any quantity of interest, and comparisons between groups may be impossible to interpret.”
[1] Phexxi Fact Sheet:
https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/label/2020/208352s000lbl.pdf
[2] This is overstating it somewhat. Not all women had sex every month.
[3] Pearl Index:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearl_Index#Criticisms